I noticed a story in today’s local paper about Britain wanting to increase its naval presence in the Persian Gulf. I immediately thought that the Persian Gulf was quite a long way from the mist-shrouded shores of Great Britain.
This story also reminded me instantly of the Suez Crisis of 1956. This is when Britain, France and Israel fought back against the nationalization of the Suez Canal by a newly nationalistic Egyptian government under Nasser. The USA at that time told them to back off and reminded them that responses common during a colonial era were no longer appropriate, and that new geo-political patterns had emerged. The former colonial powers were also told that they would have far fewer opportunities to throw their weight around and that the new super-power in town (then, the USA) would be calling the shots.
I predict that the same thing will happen in the Persian Gulf with the West’s confrontation with Iran. However, in this case it seems like the most of the West will fall into the role that Britain and France played at the time of the Suez Crisis.
If the current Iran confrontation becomes a live war—and it increasingly looks like it will—then countries of the West will be told in no uncertain terms that the rules of the game have changed, in a similar way to 1956, and that they should back off.
I predict that China and other BRIC nations will be the ones doing the telling this time.
